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Development
Through
Wage-Led Growth
By
Henry C.K. Liu
Part I: Stagnant
Worker Income Leads to Overcapacity
Part II: Gold
Keeps
Rising as Other Commodities Fall
Part III: Labor
Markets de-linked from the Gold Market
Part IV: Central
Banks
and Gold
Part V: Central
Banks
and Gold Liquidity
Part VI: The London
Gold Market
Part VII: Weak
Political Response to Ineffective Financial Regulation
Part VIII: Gold and
Fiat Currencies
Part IX: International
Gold Agreements - Historical Political Context
This article appeared in AToL
on April 1, 2011
In
anticipation of a victorious ending of WWII against the Axis Powers of
Germany, Italy
and Japan,
representatives of 45 allied countries attended a policy conference
called by
the US
as the
leading power, at the summer mountain resort town of Bretton
Woods, New Hampshire
in northeast United States
in July 1944. The purpose was to attempt to create
new supranational financial institutions that would help moderate, if
not eliminate,
the geo-economic causes of war and to forge a new post-war
framework for
international monetary cooperation to support international trade and
finance.
The traditional geo-economic
causes of war, identified as
militant international competition based on aggressive economic
nationalism in
a global quest for imperialistic empires to exploit distant colonies
with less
developed economies, were expected to be eliminated after WWII through
new
supranational economic institutions to regulate free trade in peace.
International trade was regarded as an effective economic means to
avoid war.
The
Bretton Woods international monetary regime established in 1945 was
based on a
fixed exchange rate of national currencies pegged to a gold-backed
dollar at
$35 per troy ounce of gold. Mainstream economic theory at the time did
not
consider free cross-border flow of funds necessary or desirable for
promoting
trade or economic development. Foreign exchange rates were to be
intermediated
only through transaction between central banks of trade participating
nations.
No private foreign exchange markets were permitted or existed.
Twenty-six
year later, in 1971, the Bretton Woods monetary regime was abandoned by
President Richard Nixon when the US
suspended the dollar’s peg to gold. This was done because US fiscal
deficits
from overseas spending were causing massive and unsustainable drain in
US gold
holdings.
On the geo-political side,
prospects of future full-scale
wars were expected by conference attendees to be greatly reduced
through non-violent
conflict resolution within a new supranational political institution
called the
United Nations, based on the principles of democracy,
self-determination of
peoples and universal human rights for individuals.
Creation of IMF and
World Bank at Bretton Woods
The outcome of the 1944
Bretton Woods Conference was the creation
of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) to facilitate a new post-war
international monetary system to sustain financial security with regard
to
balance of payments among nations participating in international trade.
An International
Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) was also created to help
war-torn Europe
in post-war reconstruction. To promoted
world trade against the
historical pre-war context of Mercantilist protectionism, participating
nations
of the Bretton Woods Conference reached a decision to meet further
regularly to develop new supranational institutions to promote and
regulate
international free trade.
Creation of GATT and
WTO
In October 1947,
twenty-three countries followed up with a
six-months-long conference in Geneva, Switzerland,
to reach a multilateral General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)
designed
to facilitate and regulate international trade liberalization.
GATT is
a
multilateral framework for regulating international trade among some
150 participating
countries that had agreed to implement the idea of forming an
International
Trade Organization (ITO) based on GATT. A draft charter for the ITO was
produced based on which the US,
the world strongest economy as a result of being the only economy not
damaged
by war in the previous decade, initiated negotiations with 22 other
countries
that led to commitments to reduce and regulate some 45,000 tariff
rates.
Procedurally, GATT was
framed within existing provisions of US
law as incorporated in the Reciprocal Trade Agreement Act (RTAA) that
had been
passed by Congress and signed into law by President Franklin D.
Roosevelt in
1934. Thus GATT did not require further approval by Congress.
By the RTAA of 1934,
Congress gave the President special
power to negotiate bilateral and multilateral reciprocal trade
agreements with
other countries. This power enabled President Franklin D Roosevelt to
liberalize US
trade policy by reaching bilateral and multilateral trade agreements
with other
trading nations around the globe. RTAA is widely credited by economists
and
historians as the legal cornerstone for ushering in the subsequent
post-WWII
era of liberal trade policy that would evolve eventually into the
current
globalized neo-liberal global trade regime that emerged after the end
of the
Cold War.
Tariffs vs Federal
Income
Tax
Historically, foreign
trade had not been a critically
important part of the US
economy until 1913, an eventful year during which the Federal Reserve
System
was created and a federal income tax was instituted. Still, foreign
trade
remained a peripheral sector in the US
economy until after WWII when the US
economy began to dominate the war-torn world economy by default.
Historically,
US tariffs had been set at high levels to provide revenue for the
federal
government before the introduction of a federal income tax.
One way to look at the historical relationship between tariffs and
income tax is that US citizens have been asked to pay for foreign free
trade since 1913.
To raise revenue to fund
the Civil War, a temporary federal
income tax had been introduced in the North with the Revenue Act of
1861. It
was a flat tax of 3% on annual income above $800. The following year,
this act
was replaced with a graduated (progressive) tax ranging from 3% to 5%
on income
above $600 in the Revenue Act of 1862, which specified a termination of
federal
income taxation in 1866.
The Socialist Labor Party
advocated a graduated income tax
in 1887. The Populist Party “demanded a graduated income tax” in its
1892
platform. The liberal wing of the Democratic Party, led by Progressive
leader William
Jennings Bryan, having advocated an income tax provision in the Revenue
Act of
1894, and again proposed a federal income tax in the platform in his
1908
presidential campaign against Republican William Howard Taft, a
candidate
hand-picked by out-going President Theodore Roosevelt. Bryan
lost the Electoral College 321 to 162, his worst defeat yet in his
three
campaigns for the presidency, and did not carry any of the states in
the
industrial Northeast.
The provisions of the
Revenue Act of 1894, also known as the
Wilson-Gorman Tariff Act of 1894, required that, for a five-year
period, any “gains,
profits and incomes” in excess of $4,000 would be taxed at 2%. In
compliance
with the Act, the New York-based Farmers’ Loan & Trust Company
announced to
its shareholders that it would not only pay the tax, but also provide
to the
collector of internal revenue in the Department of the Treasury the
names of
all shareholders who were liable for being taxed for income under the
Act.
Charles Pollock, a Massachusetts
resident who owned only ten shares of stock in the Farmers’ Loan &
Trust
Company sued the company to enjoin the company from paying the income
tax.
Pollock lost in the lower courts but finally appealed to the United
States
Supreme Court, which agreed to hear the case.
Since Article I,
Section 9 of the Constitution gave the
States the power to impose direct taxation, the federal government
could impose
direct taxes as well, but only if those taxes were apportioned among
the states
in proportion to their representation in Congress. In this case the
Court
examined a national income tax passed by Congress in 1894.
Pollock vs the
Farmers’ Loan & Trust Company
was decided by the Supreme Court together
with Hyde v. Continental Trust
Company of
the City of New York. The
question
was whether the federal income tax was a
direct tax in violation of the Constitution (Article I, Section 9). The
Court
rule in the affirmative, that the Wilson-Gorman Tariff Act of 1894 did
violate
the Constitution since it imposed taxes on personal income derived from
real
estate investments and personal property such as stocks and bonds;
which was a
direct taxation scheme that had to be apportioned properly among the
States as
required by the Constitution.
The Court handed down its
decision on April 8, 1895,
with Chief Justice Melville Fuller
delivering the majority opinion of the Court, ruling in favor of
Pollock,
declaring as unconstitutional certain taxes levied by the Wilson-Gorman
Acts,
such as those imposed on income from property. The Court treated the
tax on
income from property as a direct tax. Under the provisions of the US
Constitution
at that time, such direct taxes were required to be imposed in
proportion to
the size of each State’s population. The tax in question had not been
so
apportioned and, therefore, was constitutionally invalid. The decision
was negated
eight years later by the adoption of the Sixteenth Amendment in 1913.
The Revenue
Act of
1894 (Wilson-Gorman Tariff Act
- ch. 349, §73, 28 Stat. 570, August 27, 1894) reduced
the tariff rates
slightly from the rates set in the 1890 McKinley tariff, and
in
exchange imposed a 2% income tax to make up for the loss of federal
revenue.
Supported by the Democrats, this attempt at tariff reform was
important
because it imposed the first peacetime federal income tax (2%
on
income over $4,000 or $88,100 in 2010 dollars, which meant only fewer
than 10%
of households would be required to pay any income tax). The purpose of
the federal
income tax was to make up for revenue that would be lost to the Federal
government by tariff reductions.
By coincidence, $4,000
would be the exemption for married
couples when the Revenue Act of 1913 was signed into law by President
Woodrow
Wilson in October, as a result of the February 25,
1913 ratification of
the Sixteenth Amendment to the US
Constitution.
The Revenue Act of 1913,
introduced by President Wilson and
passed by the House, lowered tariff rates significantly as promised in
the Democratic
election platform, dropping the import tariff to zero on iron ore,
coal, lumber
and wool, which angered US producers. Protectionists in the Senate
added more
than 600 amendments to the bill that nullified most of the tariff
reforms and
raised tariff rates back again. The “Sugar Trust” in particular pushed
for
higher tariff rates on sugar that favored producers at the expense of US
consumers.
The Sixteenth Amendment,
brief in words, states: “The
Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on income, from
whatever
sources derived, without apportionment among the several States, and
without
regard to any census or remuneration.”
It negates the
Court’s ruling on Pollock vs the
Farmers’
Loan & Trust Company, which
declared
the income tax in the Wilson-Gorman Acts unconstitutional because it
was
a direct tax that required apportionment among the states.
The Sixteenth Amendment,
ratified on February 25, 1913,
preceded by only three months
the Seventeenth Amendment ratified on May 31, 1913, which established direct election
of US
Senators by direct
popular vote. The Seventeenth Amendment superseded Article I, § 3,
Clauses 1 and
2 of the Constitution, under which Senators were elected indirectly by
elected
officials in state legislatures. It also altered the procedure for
filling
vacancies in the Senate, to be consistent with the method of election.
It also
preceded the Nineteenth Amendment, rectified on August 26,
1920, which gave women the
right to vote.
The Sixteenth Amendment
exempted income taxes from the
constitutional requirements with regard to direct taxes, after income
taxes on
rents, dividends, and interest were ruled by the Supreme Court to be
direct
taxes in Pollock v. Farmers' Loan
& Trust Co. (1895)
that must be apportioned among the states.
A regime of central
banking was also adopted with the
establishment of the Federal Reserve System when Congress passed the
1913 Federal Reserve Act (ch. 6, 38 Stat. 251,
enacted December 23, 1913)
Blaming Smoot-Hawley
Wrongly for the Great Depression
In response to dismal
economic conditions in the Great
Depression following the stock market crash of 1929, Congress escalated
its long-standing
trade protectionist policies, culminating in the Smoot-Hawley Act of
1930,
which was a basket of various increased tariffs to protect many fragile
industries in the US
economy in a severe depression, that was signed into law on June 17, 1930 by President
Herbert
Hoover. Two years later, Hoover,
a
conservative Republican, lost the1932 presidential election to Franklin
D.
Roosevelt, liberal Democrat governor of New York.
Until the current
financial crisis that started in mid 2007,
it had been conventional neo-liberal wisdom to blame the Smoot-Hawley
Act as
having deepened the Great Depression. Yet Smooth-Hawley was signed into
law
only on June 17, 1930,
almost a year after the stock market crash on October 24,
1929. It is not possible
for an event to
trigger retrospectively other events that have taken place before it.
Further, imports during
1929 were only 4.2% of the US GNP
(Gross National Product) and exports only 5.0%, with the US
enjoying a trade surplus equaling to 0.8% of its GNP. Two-way total
foreign
trade amounted to only 9.2% of GNP. Before 1991, the US
used GNP as its primary measure of total economic activity. After that,
it
began to use Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Gross National Product
(GNP) contrasts with Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) in that while GNP measures the output generated by a
country’s
enterprises - whether physically located domestically or abroad, GDP
measures the total output produced within a country’s borders - whether
produced by that country’s own firms or not. Since globalization, many
developing economies that sought development through exporting
economies have
become statistical boom towns while in reality are trapped in poverty
by
exporting low-wage production financed by foreign capital.
Even with a US
trade deficit of $647 billion in 2010 that amounted to 2.9% of its GDP
of
$14.87 trillion, US GNP of $15.2 trillion was still greater than US GDP
by $330
billion. For 2006, when the trade
deficit was at $840 billion, the US GNP was $13.8 trillion, still
larger than
US GDP of $13.6 by $200 billion.
In 2006, some 6 months
before the current financial crisis
first exploded in July 2007, US
import was 18% of GDP and export was 13%, with a trade deficit
amounting to 5%
of GDP. Foreign trade still amounted to only 31% of US GDP.
In 2006, China’s
import was 31% of GDP and export was 39% of GDP, yielding a trade
surplus of 8%
of GDP. Foreign trade accounted for 70% of Chinese GDP. China
imported a larger percentage of its GDP than the US
did in 2006. Foreign trade was twice as important to the Chinese
economy as it
was to the US
economy in 2006. China
has since adopted a plan to reduce the percentage of GDP devoted to
foreign
trade by trying to stimulate growth in the domestic sector faster than
that in
the export sector.
US
Foreign trade being less than 10% of its GNP in 1929 was cited by
monetarist Milton
Friedman as evidence for the reason he dismissed the alleged critical
role of
Smoot-Hawley played on the other 90% of the US
economy that was not related to foreign trade. Instead, Friedman
pointed to the
critical role played by the failure of Federal Reserve monetary policy
to
provide needed liquidity to a stagnant market, as the main cause of the
depression. For seven decades, Friedman’s assertion was held as valid
by
mainstream economics until 2008, when the Greenspan Fed’s repeated
administration of monetary easing at the first sign of any economic
slowdown
over an 18- year period merely built toward an accumulative crisis that
exploded in mid-2007.
Since then, while the
first Fed quantitative easing (QE1) of
$1.7 trillion that ended in March 2010 arguably prevented a total
meltdown of
the financial markets, QE2 in the amount of $600 billion administered
through
June 2011 so far has failed to jump start any recovery from a serious
impaired
economy. There are still talks of more quantitative easing being needed
even
after a
total of $2.1 trillion had been committed.
The Fed has kept the
bench-mark interest rate near zero
since December 2008 against an inflation rate of above 2%, going on 30
months,
which is too long a time for negative interest rates for any economy to
sustain
without commensurate inflationary penalty down the road. In addition,
the Fed’s
balance sheet has ballooned to a record of $2.8 trillion, with no
visible
strategy on an orderly exit from the market and unwinding of toxic
assets held
that would not cause serious market turmoil.
Even then, Friedman’s
assertion was only a myth that was at
best half right – only on the monetary part. Friedman failed to
acknowledge the
role low wages played in the growth of the debt bubble in the Roaring
Twenties
and the long-term unemployment caused by the bubble’s burst that put
the world
economy in a spiral of supply/demand
imbalance. The depression was then prolonged by intractable demand
deficiency
resulting from prolonged high unemployment and declining wages.
It was ironic that
Friedman did not learn from his teacher
Jacob Viner who, as the leading faculty member in the Economics
Department at
the University
of Chicago,
identified “unbalanced deflation”, in which both asset prices and wages
declined while nominal debt levels remain constant, as the prime cause
of the
Great Depression. Without lessons of history on the danger of deficient
wages
being acknowledged, the same chain of
events seven decades later was allowed to again cause the current
depression
that started in 2008.
On the economics of
nuclear war-making, Viner spoke at the Conference on Atomic Energy
Control in 1945, saying “that the atomic bomb was the cheapest way yet
devised
of killing human beings” and that the destructive characteristics of
nuclear
bombs “will be peacemaking in effect”. For this testimony, Viner is
sometimes
viewed as the founder of nuclear deterrence later developed into the
Cold War
doctrine of Mutual Massive Assured Destruction (MAD) as a stabilizing
deterent
of nuclear war by Herman Khan in his book: On
Thermal Nuclear War. (Please see my January 31, 2003 AToL
article: War and the
military-industrial
complex)
In reality, Smoot-Hawley’s
high protectionist tariffs
actually prevented wages from declining further through cross-border
wage
arbitrage during the 1930s Great Depression, which seven decades later
became a
main cause of demand deficiency that caused the current economic crisis
that
first manifested itself as a financial crisis in 2007. Unlike during
the age of
industrial imperialism when mercantilist trade raised domestic wages in
the
imperialist economies such as Britain’s and Germany’s before WWI,
global
international trade in the neo-liberal era in the 21st
century acts
to depress wages in all economies through cross–border wage arbitrage
to create
a downward spiral of wages worldwide, in a race to the bottom on
consumer
demand that needs to be compensated through massive consumer debt in
the form
of subprime mortgages that were supported only by rising home prices
rather
than rising wages.
Fed Quantitative
Easing Delivered Newly Created Money to Wrong Recipients
In the 1930s, companies
had to close their doors and lay off
workers because their employed workers did not have enough money to buy
the
products they produced for the companies that employed them. The
resultant high
unemployment rate from lay-offs of workers shrank consumer demand
further to
cause more companies to close and to layoff still more workers to
depress
demand further in a downward spiral. This chain of events seem to be
repeating
itself seven decades later in an economy gravely impaired by the
current global
financial crisis that began in the US
in 2007. This is because management has
not learned from history that taking money from wages to increase
return on
capital is a self-defeating dead end in a market economy.
Furthermore, in the
current financial crisis, the solution
adopted by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury is to create money ex
nihilo
(out of nothing) to buy toxic debt from insolvent
financial
institutions, and lending these walking-dead financial institutions
newly
created money that the tax-paying public would have to pay back with
future taxes,
merely to create an illusion of profit for these financially distressed
institutions, while management continues to lay off more workers.
Hamilton’s Protectionist Policy Saved the
Young US
from British Imperialism
While liberal economic
theory after WWII mistakenly asserted
that intensified protectionist trade policies had worsened the Great
Depression, the adherents of this theory, in their eagerness to promote
global
trade liberalization in the 1990s, have chosen to ignore the historical
fact that
the US
economy
in the new nation’s early decades had benefited greatly from the
protectionist
trade policies of Alexander Hamilton against British trade imperialism
for most
of its history until the two World Wars in the 20th
century made the US
the leading
economical power to benefit from low tariffs and open trade worldwide.
As evident in Britain
and the US
during the Great Depression, international trade liberation
historically did
not benefit equally all in the domestic population of the trading
nations, or
even benefit equally all sectors in the domestic economy of trading
nations.
International trade certainly failed to benefit equally all trading
nations in
the global trade regime in the pre-WWII decades. These flaws of
distributional
inequalities in a global trade liberation regime continue to be swept
under the
intellectual rug today within the WTO. (Please see my March 14. 2008 AToL
article – The Shape
of US
Populism – Part II: Long Term Effects of the Civil War)
Income
Mal-distribution Effects of the RTAA of 1934
The Reciprocal Trade
Agreement Act (RTAA) of 1934 marked a
sharp policy departure from the earlier era of Hamiltonian selective
trade
protectionism in the United States.
Since RTAA, tariffs on imported foreign products declined from an
average of
46% in 1934 to 12% by 1962. Reciprocally, US
exports also enjoyed equivalent tariffs reduction in foreign markets.
And since
during this period, the US
exported more than it imported, reciprocal international tariff
reduction was
beneficial to the US
economy as a whole by producing a positive balance of payments, even if
it was
distributionally not evenly beneficial to all sectors of the economy or
all
segments of population.
Liberalized trade actually
exacerbated income and wealth
disparity both within each trading nation and among trading nations.
This trend
has continued and strengthened to the present time. The misdistribution
of
benefits and burdens of free trade, both domestic and international, is
the
main reason why anti-trade sentiments have risen sharply everywhere in
recent
decades.
Before the RTAA became law
in 1934, any change in tariff for
particular imports would require Congress to unilaterally choose a
tariff rate
for a particular industries different than the median preferred tariff,
according to each industry’s need for protection against superior
foreign
competition, taking a target foreign country’s tariff rate as fixed,
and
depending on the influence of special interest on Congress.
Congressional
action of tariffs would depend on its partisan composition.
Historically, since the
Civil War, a Congress controlled by
Republicans who represented new growing industries would prefer higher
tariffs
to protect their industrial constituents that were not yet strong
enough to
export or to withstand strong foreign competition. On the other hands,
a
Congress controlled by Democrats would prefer lower tariffs to expand
profitable agricultural produce export between the Southern plantations
and
industrialized Britain.
Thus, the matter of tariffs became a major issue of partisan contention
in US
domestic politics. This issue has continued to the present time.
Individual
members of Congress were, and still are, under intense pressure from
industry
lobbyists to raise tariffs to protect US
industries from the negative effects of superior foreign imports, and
on the
other side, from farm lobbyists to lower tariffs to increase
agricultural
export.
The RTAA of 1934 freed
both the President and the Congress
from the trend of political pressure on selective tariff increases by
linking US
tariff reduction reciprocally with her trading partners. Reciprocity in
general
tariff reduction shifts the fight between exporter and importers to a
fight on
selectivity. Secondly, it also allowed
Congress to approve changes in tariffs with a simple majority, as
opposed to
the previous requisite two-thirds super majority required by earlier
trade
treaties. Lastly, the President gained the authority to negotiate the
terms of
trade bilaterally which the Congress could only accept or reject, but
not
modify.
These three developments
in the formulation process on trade
policy shaped the political trajectory towards automatic enactment of
more
liberal US
trade policies without full consensus of all citizens, allowing special
interest influence to dominate tariff policy formulation. Trade then
began to
structurally benefit special sectors in the economy and special
segments in the
population with strong legislative lobbies, often at the expense of
those
industries and segments of the population not as strongly represented
in the
political process.
Reciprocity was an
important tenet of the bilateral trade
agreements brokered under the RTAA of 1934 because it gave Congress a
more open
one-way door to lower tariffs. As more foreign trading countries
entered into
bilateral tariff reduction deals with the United States, US exporters
had more
incentive and resources to lobby Congress for even lower tariffs for
many
industries that had grown strong to seek
more open markets overseas.
Changing Domestic
Politics
on Protectionist Tariffs
After the Civil War ended
in 1865, Democrats representing
the agricultural South were generally the party of trade
liberalization, while
Republicans representing the industrial and financial North, were
generally for
higher protectionist tariffs. This pattern was clear in congressional
votes on
tariffs from 1860 until 1930. Southern Democrats were the congressional
minority in the Northeast Republican majority of Congresses after the
Civil
War, until the election of Franklin D Roosevelt, a liberal Democrat
from New York, the
financial center of the nation.
During their
brief stints in the majority, Democrats passed several tariff reduction
bills.
Examples include the Wilson-Gorman Act of 1894 and the Underwood Tariff
Act of
1913.
However, subsequent
Republican majorities always managed to undo
the unilateral tariff reductions pushed through by the Democrats. By
the time
of the Great Depression in the 1930s, tariffs were at historic highs as
a
result of years of Republican control of Congress and the White House.
Members
of Congress commonly entered into informal quid pro quo agreements
where they
voted for other members’ preferred tariffs in order to secure support
for their
own tariff positions. Political representatives of the people voted in
narrow
parochial interests of their own districts, seldom taking into account
their
actions’ aggregate national toll on other US
consumers, domestic industries or exporters outside their own
districts.
FDR’s Fight against
Legislative
Log-rolling
This practice is referred
to in political nomenclature as
log-rolling, which describes a common practice in Congress in which
legislators
agree to trade votes on bills of little interest for votes on bills
that were
much more important to their political survival, Logrolling is
especially
common when the legislators are relatively free of control by their
national
party leaders and are trying to secure votes for bills that will
concentrate
sizable benefits on their own home districts while spreading most of
the costs
out over taxpayers in the rest of the country. Local projects such as
Federal-funded dams, bridges, highways, housing projects, VA hospitals,
job-training centers, military bases and the like, or high protective
tariffs
to help local industries, are often
pushed through by log-rolling.
President Franklin D
Roosevelt and key members of his
administration, including key policy-makers in his Brain Trust, were
intent on
stopping this practice of log-rolling that systematically produced
bills that
worked against the national interest.
Defectors in the FDR
Camp
Though Democrats voted for
trade liberalization far more
often than Republicans, they did not vote as a solid block. Democrats
from
industrial states who were uncomfortable with reducing protectionist
tariffs
during the Depression included Democratic Representative Henry Rainey
from Illinois,
a key industrial state, and some members of Roosevelt’s
own administration with close ties to industries and finance.
Among other Democrats who
supported high protectionist
tariffs was Rexford Tugwell, an agro-economist who became a lead member
of Roosevelt’s
first “Brain Trust”. He was among a group of Columbia
University
scholars who helped
develop policy recommendations leading up to Roosevelt’s
successful 1932 election as president. Tugwell subsequently served in
FDR’s
administration for four years and was one of the chief intellectual
contributors to the New Deal. Later in his life, he also served as the
director
of the New York City Planning Commission and Governor of Puerto
Rico.
Tugwell is an advocate of central economic planning that contributed to
the
long-range success of the US
economy.
Another supporter of high
protectionist tariffs was Raymond
Moley, a leading New Dealer who became a bitter opponent of the New
Deal later
in his political career. Moley supported FDR in his first campaign in
1932 for
the White House, and recruited fellow Columbia
professors to form the first “Brain Trust” to advise Roosevelt
to shape an alternative economic destiny for the nation during the
presidential
campaign in 1932.
Despite loud ridicule from
editorial writers and political
cartoonists, the “Brain Trust” went on to Washington with its members
becoming
powerful figures in Roosevelt’s New Deal, with Moley writing important
speeches
for the president and contributed memorable phrases such as “The
Forgotten Men”
and “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself”. He coined the term
“New
Deal” for the equalitarian policies of the FDR administration, and
declared
that capitalism “was saved in eight days” by FDR’s early actions as
President.
However, in mid-1933 Moley
began to break with Roosevelt,
and although he continued to write speeches for the president until
1936, he
became increasingly critical of Roosevelt’s
liberal
policies, eventually becoming a conservative Republican. He wrote a
column for Newsweek
magazine from 1937 to 1968 promoting no-holds-barred free market
capitalism.
Later, Moley wrote for the
nation’s leading conservative
periodical National Review
founded by William F Buckley in 1955. In these roles, he became one of
the best known critics of liberalism in general and the New Deal in
particular.
Moley’s book: After Seven Years (New York: 1939), was one of
the first
in-depth attacks on the New Deal, and remains one of the harshest ever.
Moley
was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by Republican President
Richard
Nixon on April 22, 1970.
Another supporter of high
protectionist tariffs in the FDR administration
was Adolf A. Berle. An academic child prodigy, Berle entered Harvard
College at age
14 in 1909, earning a
bachelor’s degree by 1913 and a master's in 1914. He then enrolled in Harvard
Law School
and became the youngest graduate in the school’s history in 1916, at
age 21.
Upon graduation, Berle joined the military in the intelligent service
in June
1916, a full year before the US
entered WWI on Aril 6, 1917.
Berle’s first assignment
as an intelligence officer was to
assist in increasing sugar production in the Dominican
Republic by working out property and
contractual conflicts among rural landowners. Immediately after World
War I,
Berle became a member of the US Delegation to the Paris Peace
Conference,
advocating for smaller nations' rights of self-determination. In 1919,
Berle
moved to New
York City and
founded
a prominent law known as Berle, Berle and Brunner.
In 1927, Berle became a
professor of corporate law at Columbia
Law School
in 1927 and remained on the faculty until retiring in 1964. He is best
known
among economists and corporate law specialists for his groundbreaking
work in corporate
governance. His book, The Modern
Corporation and Private Property,
which he co-authored with economist Gardiner
Means, remains the most quoted text in corporate governance studies
today.
Gardiner Means
followed the institutionalist tradition of economic which focuses on
understanding the role of the evolutionary process and the role of
institutions
in shaping economic behaviour. Institutionalism’s original focus lay in
Thorstein
Veblen (1857-1929) instinct-oriented dichotomy between technology on
the one
side and the “ceremonial” sphere of society on the other.
In 1934, Means
coined to the term “administered prices” to refer to prices set by
firms in monopolistic
positions. In The Corporate Revolution
in America (1962)
written with
Berle, Means wrote:
“We now have single
corporate enterprises employing hundreds of thousands
of workers, having hundreds of thousands of stockholders, using
billions of
dollars' worth of the instruments of production, serving millions of
customers,
and controlled by a single management group. These are great
collectives of
enterprise, and a system composed of them might well be called
‘collective
capitalism’.”
Means argued that
where an economy is fueled by big firms it is the interests of
management, not
the public, that govern society. It should be pointed out the
“collective” is
not the same as “socialized”. Collective
enterprises work only to benenfit member of the collective, not society
as
large.
Berle and Means showed
that the means of production in the US
economy by the 1960s were highly concentrated in the hands of the
largest 200
corporations, and that within the large corporations, managers
controlled firms
despite shareholders’ formal ownership.
Berle theorized that
economic concentration meant that the
effects of competitive price theory were largely mythical. This fact
remains
operative today.
Some voice began to
advocate trust busting, the breaking up
of the concentrations of firms into smaller entities in order to
restore
competitive forces in the market, as had been carried out by
Progressive
President Theodore Roosevelt, who inherited the presidency as the vice
president of Republican President McKinley after the latter’s
assassination in
1901.
Theodore Roosevelt was the
first president since the rise of
big corporations to assert the principle of government supremacy over
private
business, and the first Republican president since Lincoln
to assert strong executive leadership over the other two branches of
the
government.
Roosevelt’s trust busting
crusade under the antitrust
Sherman Act of 1890 against railroad barons James J. Hill and Edward H.
Harriman and the House of Morgan to break up the monopoly of rail lines
in the
Northeast, and against John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Trust, and
against
James B. Duke’s tobacco trust, received enthusiastic public support and
favorable rulings by the Supreme Court. But the economic effect was
disappointing since the dissolved trusts simply reorganized into small
companies with non-compete “community of interest” agreements to stay
out of
the legal reach of the Sherman Act, which at any rate, was gradually
watered
down by an increasingly conservative Supreme Court.
Berle in 1934 believed
that trust busting would be
economically regressive. Instead, he argued for government regulation
over
business and became identified with the school of business
statesmanship, which
advocated that corporate leadership accept (and theorized that they had
to a
great extent already accepted) that they must fulfill responsibilities
toward
society in addition to their traditional responsibilities toward
shareholders
interests, giving birth to the concept of good corporate citizenship.
Berle asserted that
corporate law should reflect this new
reality. Berle wrote in The
Modern Corporation: “The
law of
corporations, accordingly, might well be considered as a potential
constitutional law for the new economic state, while business practice
is
increasingly assuming the aspect of economic statesmanship.”
To Berle, the US
was moving inevitably towards being a Corporate
State, a
socio-economic trend that
requires the injection of the need for statesmanship into the mentality
of
corporate management to make the new Corporate
State
acceptable.
For the 1967
Revised Edition, Berle added a new Preface, updating the overviiew and
bringing
in new arguments and observations. He summed up the whole thrust of the
book at
the same time, making it a valuable adjunct to the text:
“Why have stockholders?
What contribution do they make, entitling them to
heirship of half the profits of the industrial system, receivable
partly in the
form of dividends, and partly in the form of increased market values
resulting
from undistributed corporate gains? Stockholders toil not, neither do
they
spin, to earn that reward. They are beneficiaries by position only.
Justification for their inheritance must be sought outside classic
economic
reasoning.”
The position of
stockholders' profit, said Berle,“can be founded only upon social
grounds.
There is... a value attached to individual life, individual
development,
individual solution of personal problems, individual choice of
consumption and
activity. Wealth unquestionably does add to an individual’s capacity
and range
in pursuit of happiness and self-development. There is certainly
advantage to
the community when men take care of themselves.
But that
justification turns on the distribution as well as the existence of
wealth. Its
force exists only in direct ratio to the number of individuals who hold
such
wealth. Justification for the stockholder’s existence thus depends on
increasing distribution within the American population. Ideally the
stockholder’s position will be impregnable only when every American
family has
its fragment of that position and of the wealth by which the
opportunity to
develop individuality becomes fully actualized.”
Berle eloquently
prepared the public for the ermergence of a benign corperate state in
the US.
Trade
Liberation and the Roosevelt Brain Trust
Berle was an original
member of Franklin D Roosevelt’s “Brain
Trust”, a group of expert advisers who developed policy
recommendations.
Berle’s foci ranged from economic recovery to diplomatic strategy
during Roosevelt’s
1932 re-election campaign. Berle wrote Roosevelt’s
Commonwealth
Club Address on the need for
government involvement in industrial and
economic policy, delivered September
23, 1932 in San Francisco.
In contrast to President Hoover’s “Rugged Individualism” campaign
speech
delivered on October 22, 1928, one
year before the market crash of October 1929, Roosevelt in 1932 argued
that the
United States had entered a new era in which only through an active
government
could individual liberty and opportunity be protected from the abuses
of
industry and the unequal distribution of resources. In 2000, the speech
was ranked as the second best presidential campaign speech of the 20th
century by public address scholars.
The Roosevelt administration took
advantage of a Democrat-controlled Congress and the Presidency in 1934
to push
through the RTAA to reduce tariffs. In 1936 and again 1940, the
Republican
Party ran on a platform of repealing the tariff reductions secured
under the
RTAA but failed to unseat Roosevelt. But when
the
Republicans finally won back control of Congress in 1946, they did not
act to
raise tariffs. In the years since the enactment of the RTAA in 1934,
the
economies of Europe and East Asia
had been decimated by the violence of World War II. This left a huge
global
production vacuum that was filled by American exporters whose goods
were
welcomed by the defeated countries with low tariffs to add to the cost
of
needed imports. On the other side, US industrial strength had been
greatly
enhance by war production and no longer needed protectionist tariffs to
survive.
In the World War II years,
the United
States
had its highest positive account
balance in its history. Republican preferences for high tariffs started
shifting as exporters from their home districts began to benefit from
increased
export in international trade. By the 1950s, there was no statistically
significant difference between Republicans and Democrats on tariff
policies.
This change has endured to the present day.
Another key feature of the
RTAA was the fact that if
Congress wanted to repeal a tariff reduction, it would take a
two-thirds
supermajority. That means that the tariff would have to be especially
onerous
and the effect nation wide and that the Congress would have to be
especially
protectionist. Once enacted, tariff reductions tended to stick. As more
US
industries began to
benefit from tariff reductions, they began to lobby
Congress for even lower tariffs. Prior to RTAA, Congress was mostly
lobbied by
industries seeking to create or raise tariffs to protect their domestic
market.
This change also helped to lock in many of the gains in trade
liberalization.
In short, the political incentive to raise tariffs decreased across the
board
while the political incentive to lower tariffs increased. The only
except was
organized labor who saw jobs held their members increasingly moved
overseas by cross-border
arbitrage. But organized labor has been
in sharp decline since the decades of globalization which affect its
political
clout in domestic politics.
As reciprocal tariffs
dropped off dramatically, global
markets were also increasingly liberalized. World trade expanded at a
rapid
pace. The RTAA, though a law of the United
States, provided the first widespread
system
of guidelines for US bilateral trade agreements. The United
States and the European nations began
avoiding beggar-thy-neighbor policies which supposedly pursued national
trade
objectives at the expense of other nations. Instead, countries started
to
accept the Ricardo notion of comparative advantage from trade
cooperation.
The Ricardian theory of
comparative advantage in trade
asserts that two countries can both gain from trade if, in the absence
of
trade, they have different relative costs for producing the
same
goods.
Even if one country is more efficient in the production of all goods
(absolute
advantage), it can still gain by trading with a less-efficient country,
as long
as they have different relative efficiencies. Among the
different relative
efficiencies Ricardo implied
but failed to specify is the profit opportunity of cross border wage
arbitrage
to bring global wages to the lowest possible levels.
Led by the United States,
international trade and monetary cooperation flourished and free trade
institutions came into existence to dismantle residual common sense
resistance.
All this worked smilingly for the strong economies and the financial
elite in
all economies until the financial crisis broke out in 2007 from the
blow back
from systemically induced low wages in all trading economies.
March 23, 2011
Next: The
Birth and
Decline of Institutional Economics
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