This article appear on NewDeal20.org
on June 18, 2009
A lot of criticism on the Obama plan for regulatory reform is focused
on giving the Fed new powers to regulate banks and non-bank financial
institutions on the ground that the Fed allegedly failed to spot the
debt bubble that burst in 2007. But the Fed did not failed to spot the
serial bubbles. It created them by policy. Greenspan, notwithstanding
his
denial of responsibility in
helping throughout the 1990s to unleash the equity bubble, had this to
say
in 2004
in hindsight after the bubble burst in 2000: “Instead of trying to
contain a
putative bubble by drastic actions with largely unpredictable
consequences, we
chose, as we noted in our mid-1999 congressional testimony, to focus on
policies to mitigate the fallout when it occurs and, hopefully, ease
the
transition to the next expansion.”
By the next expansion, Greenspan
meant the next bubble which
manifested itself in housing. The mitigating policy was a massive
injection of
liquidity into the banking system. There is a structural reason why the
housing
bubble replaced the high-tech bubble.(Please
see my September 14, 2005 article: Greenspan, the Wizard of Bubbleland)
Alan Greenspan, who from 1987 to 2006 was chairman of the Board of
Governors of US Federal Reserve - the head of the global central
banking snake by virtue of dollar hegemony - embraced the
counterfactual conclusion of Milton Friedman that monetarist measures
by the central bank can perpetuate the boom phase of the business cycle
indefinitely, banishing the bust phase from finance capitalism
altogether.
Going beyond Friedman, Greenspan asserted that a good central bank
could perform a monetary miracle simply by adding liquidity to maintain
a booming financial market by easing at the slightest hint of market
correction.
This ignored the fundamental law of finance that if liquidity is
exploited to manipulated excess debt
as phantom equity on a global scale, liquidity can act as a flammable
agent to turn a simple localized credit crunch into a systemic fire
storm.
Ben Bernanke, Greenspan's successor at the Fed since February 1, 2006,
also believes that a "good" central banker can make all the difference
in banishing depressions forever, arguing on record in 2000 that, as
Friedman claimed, the 1929 stock market crash could have been avoided
if the Fed had not dropped the monetary ball. That belief had been a
doctrinal prerequisite for any candidate up for consideration for the
post of top central banker by President George W Bush. Yet all the
Greenspan era proved was that mainstream monetary economists have been
reading the same books and buying the same counterfactual conclusion.
Friedman's "Only money matters" turned out to be a very dangerous
slogan.
Both Greenspan and Bernanke had been seduced by the convenience of easy
money and fell into an addiction to it by forgetting that, even
according to Friedman, the role of central banking is to maintain the
value of money to ensure steady, sustainable economic growth, and to
moderate cycles of boom and bust by avoiding destructively big swings
in money supply. Friedman called for a steady increase of the money
supply at an annual rate of 3% to achieve a non-accelerating inflation
rate of unemployment (NAIRU) as a solution to stagflation, when
inflation itself causes high unemployment. (Please see my January 6,
2009 AToL article: Montarism
Enters Bankruptcy)
The Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank annual symposium
at Jackson
Hole, Wyoming, is a ritual in which central bankers from major
economies all over the world, backed by their supporting cast of court
jesters masquerading as monetary economists, privately rationalize
their unmerited yet enormous power over the fate of the global economy
by publicly confessing that while their collective knowledge is grossly
inadequate for the daunting challenge of the task entrusted to them,
their faith-based dogma nevertheless should remain above question. In
2005, the annual august gathering of cnetral bankers in August took on
special fanfare as it marked the final appearance of Alan Greenspan as
chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Among the
several interrelated options of controlling the money supply, the
Federal Reserve, acting as a fourth branch of the US government based
on dubious constitutional legitimacy and head of the global
central-banking snake based on dollar hegemony, has selected
interest-rate policy as the instrument for managing the economy all
through the 18-year stewardship of Alan Greenspan, on whom many
accolades were showered by invited participants in the Jackson Hole
seminar in anticipation of his retirement early the next year.
Greenspan's formula of reducing market regulation by substituting it
with post-crisis intervention is merely buying borrowed extensions of
the boom with amplified severity of the inevitable bust down the road.
The Fed is increasingly reduced by this formula to an irrelevant role
of explaining an anarchic economy rather than directing it towards a
rational paradigm. It has adopted the role of a cleanup crew of
otherwise avoidable financial debris rather than that of a preventive
guardian of public financial health. Greenspan's monetary approach has
been "when in doubt, ease". This means injecting more money into the
banking system whenever the US economy shows signs of faltering, even
if caused by structural imbalances rather than monetary tightness. For
almost two decades, Greenspan has justifiably been in near-constant
doubt about structural balances in the economy, yet his response to
mounting imbalances has invariably been the administration of
off-the-shelf monetary laxative, leading to a serious case of lingering
monetary diarrhea that manifests itself in runaway asset price
inflation mistaken for growth.(Please see my September 14, 2005
AToL
article: Greenspan, the Wizard of Bubbleland)